Study on the Development Status and Promotion Strategy of Zero-Emission Commercial Vehicles in China under the Background of the Dual Carbon Target

Abstract

The adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is an effective strategy for pollution reduction, especially for high-emitting commercial vehicles. This paper systematically reviews the promotion policies and development status of zero-emission commercial vehicles (ZECVs) in China, with a focus on diverse application scenarios. Comprehensive policies, including subsidies, right-of-way, infrastructure development, and environmental protection incentives, have significantly advanced NEV adoption, as demonstrated by Shenzhen’s full electrification of buses and the extensive deployment of zero-emission trucks. Despite the overall slow development of ZECVs, regions in southern China and developed areas exhibit better progress. Medium and large passenger vehicles (MLPVs) have achieved a zero-emission rate of around 40%, contrasting with the significantly lower rates of 1.52% for mini and light trucks (MLTs) and 0.44% for medium and heavy trucks (MHTs). Electrification promotion varies significantly in different application scenarios, with buses leading at over 90% zero-emission rates, followed by the airport (24%) and port (16%) vehicles. The electrification of sanitation, logistics, and key industry transport, through lagging, is enhanced by targeted policies and local industry. Buses are designated as the highest priority (Level 1) for electrification transition while intercity logistics and vehicles in key industries are categorized as the lowest priority (Level 4). In addition, policy recommendations, including tailored strategies for ZECV promotion and emission reductions in traditional commercial vehicles, are put forward to provide guidance and reference for setting future zero-emission promotion goals and policy direction for commercial vehicles in subdivided application scenarios.