Spatial Characteristics and Temporal Trend of Urban Heat Island Effect over Major Cities in India Using Long-Term Space-Based MODIS Land Surface Temperature Observations (2000–2023)

Abstract

The alteration of the Earth’s surface due to urbanization and the formation of urban heat islands is one of the most evident and widely discussed anthropogenic impacts on Earth’s microclimate. The elevated land surface temperature in the urban perimeter compared with the surrounding non-urban area is known as the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect. India has experienced swift urban growth over the past few decades, and this trend is expected to persist in years to come. The literature published on SUHI in India focuses only on a few specific cities, and there is limited understanding of its geospatial variation across a broader region and its long-term trend. Here, we present one of the first studies exploring the long-term diurnal (daytime, and nighttime), seasonal, and annual characteristics of SUHI in the 20 largest urban centers of India and its neighboring countries. The study highlights a statistically significant (95% confidence interval) rise in nighttime surface temperatures across major cities based on a linear fit over 23 years (2000–2023) of MODIS land surface temperature satellite observations. The nighttime SUHI was found to be more conspicuous, positive, and consistent when compared with daytime satellite observations. The nighttime SUHI for April–May–June representing the pre-monsoon and onset of monsoon months for the top 10 cities, ranged from 0.92 to 2.33 °C; for December–January–February, representing the winter season, it ranged from 1.38 to 2.63 °C. In general, the total change in the nighttime SUHI based on linear fit (2000–2023) for the top ten cities showed warming over the urban region ranging from 2.04 to 3.7 °C. The highest warming trend was observed during the months of May–June–July (3.7 and 3.01 °C) in Ahmedabad and Delhi, cities that have undergone rapid urbanization in the last two to three decades. The study identified strongly positive annual SUHI intensity during nighttime, and weakly negative to moderately positive annual SUHI intensity during daytime, for major cities. Jaipur (India), Lahore (Pakistan), Dhaka (Bangladesh), and Colombo (Sri Lanka) showed a nighttime SUHI intensity of 2.17, 2.33, 0.32, and 0.21 °C, respectively, during the months of April–May–June, and a nighttime SUHI intensity of 2.63, 1.68, 0.94, 0.33 °C, respectively, for the months of December–January–February (2000–2023). It is apparent that the geographical location (inland/coastal) of the city has a high influence on the daytime and nighttime SUHI patterns. The current research is intended to help city planners and policymakers better understand SUHI intensity (day and night/seasonal basis) for developing strategies to mitigate urban heat island effects.