A Model for Assessing the Quantitative Effects of Heterogeneous Affinity in Malaria Transmission along with Ivermectin Mass Administration

Abstract

Using an agent-based model of malaria, we present numerical evidence that in communities of individuals having an affinity varying within a broad range of values, disease transmission may increase up to 300%. Moreover, our findings provide new insight into how to combine different strategies for the prevention of malaria transmission. In particular, we uncover a relationship between the level of heterogeneity and the level of conventional and unconventional anti-malarial drug administration (ivermectin and gametocidal agents), which, when taken together, will define a control parameter, tuning between disease persistence and elimination. Finally, we also provide evidence that the entomological inoculation rate, as well as the product between parasite and sporozoite rates are both good indicators of malaria incidence in the presence of heterogeneity in disease transmission and may configure a possible improvement in that setting, upon classical standard measures such as the basic reproductive number.