Current and Future Distribution of Ricania shantungensis (Hemiptera: Ricaniidae) in Korea: Application of Spatial Analysis to Select Relevant Environmental Variables for MaxEnt and CLIMEX Modeling

Abstract

Since the first report on its occurrence in 2010, Ricania shantungensis Chou & Lu in Korea has quickly spread. This pest population in agricultural areas has increased by over 100% each year and has caused serious economic damage in the last few years. This study was conducted to predict the potential habitat and the current and future distribution of R. shantungensis in Korea using CLIMEX and the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt), and to suggest a new parameter selection method for both modeling programs. Weights of variables used in CLIMEX and those used in MaxEnt were determined using spatial association indices of spatial analysis by distance indices (SADIE). Weather data of Zhejiang province in China and those of all Korean territories were compared with Climate Matching in CLIMEX. MaxEnt was applied and evaluated with 295 data points on the presence and absence of R. shantungensis and eight environmental variables that were preselected by spatial and correlation tests. In MaxEnt, maximum temperature of the warmest month, annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the coldest month, and precipitation of the driest month were determined to be the most important variables affecting the distribution of R. shantungensis in Korea. The results of this study indicated that R. shantungensis had a higher probability of occurrence in western areas than in eastern areas of Korea, and showed great potential to spread eastward. These results are expected to be helpful for managing R. shantungensis in Korea and selecting relevant environmental variables for species distribution modeling.