Climatic Niche of an Invasive Mantid Species in Europe: Predicted New Areas for Species Expansion

Abstract

While some species naturally expand their range by finding suitable climatic and trophic niches in new areas, others have been transported intentionally or unintentionally by humans since their journey from Africa to other continents. This phenomenon has occurred throughout history, being more prevalent at the end of the Middle Ages and at the start of the Industrial Revolution, with its frequency increasing in recent times due to globalization. Hierodula tenuidentata Saussure, 1869 is a mantis species originally distributed from India to Caucasus, that started to become more and more common in many European countries in the last few years, being considered an alien species. However, there is limited information available regarding its distribution range, habitat preference, and other ecological requirements that can help us understand its movements. We used observation data from its range, along with bioclimatic and elevation variables, to build Species Distribution Models in MaxEnt. This allowed us to analyze the species’ spatial ranges and understand and predict its distribution across Europe. Before selecting the best-fitting models, the occurrence data were spatially filtered, and bioclimatic variables tested for multicollinearity. Based on the present species distribution models, with AUC values of 0.967 for the training data and 0.960 for the test data, Hierodula tenuidentata emphasizes a coastal occurrence in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea regions, with local observations in southeastern Europe, an area that is likely to be occupied in the next few years through species expansion. Our data show that the expansion of Hierodula tenuidentata in Europe is influenced by the natural movement of the species westward combined with human introduction in some areas. It is now evident that the species’ presence in Europe is not solely based on human-aided dispersion, as was previously believed. The main variables influencing the distribution of Hierodula tenuidentata across Eurasia are temperature and precipitation, both of which have been significantly modified in recent years due to climate change.