Comparative Analysis of Snowmelt-Driven Streamflow Forecasting Using Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract

The rapid advancement of machine learning techniques has led to their widespread application in various domains, including water resources. However, snowmelt modeling remains an area that has not been extensively explored. In this study, we propose a state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep learning sequential model, leveraging a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), for snowmelt forecasting of the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. To evaluate the performance of our proposed model, we conducted a comparative analysis with other popular models, including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Transformer models. Furthermore, nested cross-validation (CV) was used with five outer folds and three inner folds, and hyperparameter tuning was performed on the inner folds. To evaluate the performance of the model, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE), R square (R2), Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were computed for each outer fold. The average metrics revealed that the TCN outperformed the other models, with an average MAE of 0.011, RMSE of 0.023, R2 of 0.991, KGE of 0.992, and NSE of 0.991 for one-day forecasts of streamflow. The findings of this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed deep learning model as compared to traditional machine learning approaches for snowmelt-driven streamflow forecasting. Moreover, the superior performance of this TCN highlights its potential as a promising deep learning model for similar hydrological applications.