Demand for and Supply of Pulses and Oil Crops in Bangladesh: A Strategic Projection for These Food Item Outlooks by 2030 and 2050

Abstract

The food items, such as pulses and oil crops, are influential means of nutritional security for the people in Bangladesh. Pulses are widely called here as an alternative to meat for poor households. The study aimed to predict productivity and national demand of pulses and oil crops in Bangladesh by 2030 and 2050, minimizing the supply and demand gaps of these crops. Using the ARIMA model developed by Box and Jenkins, the current study projected Bangladesh’s pulse and oil crop demand and supply for the years 2030 and 2050. The projections showed that the total demand for pulses in 2030 will be 17.9 lakh MT and further increased to 19.5 lakh MT in 2050. The deficit in the supply of pulses will be 12.36 lakh MT in 2030 and 9.26 lakh MT in 2050 although the shortage of pulses will disappear as a result of productivity improvements and innovations. Per capita consumption of edible oil in Bangladesh is 20–22 g per day. The majority of domestically produced soybean (5% of total demand) is used in the feed industries, while edible oil from soybean depends on import. The supply of mustard oil is predicted to be in deficit by 0.30 lakh MT in 2030 and 1.68 lakh MT in 2050. Nevertheless, the estimates also warn that supply of these food items could be threatened due to climate changes. In facing future challenges, supportive government policy and substantial investment in research and extension should be given priority for technological innovation and productivity improvement. Government also needs to develop a strategic import substitution policy for higher production of these crop and storage facilities.