An LM-BP Neural Network Approach to Estimate Monthly-Mean Daily Global Solar Radiation Using MODIS Atmospheric Products

Abstract

Solar energy is one of the most widely used renewable energy sources in the world and its development and utilization are being integrated into people’s lives. Therefore, accurate solar radiation data are of great significance for site-selection of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, design of solar furnaces and energy-efficient buildings. Practically, it is challenging to get accurate solar radiation data because of scarce and uneven distribution of ground-based observation sites throughout the country. Many artificial neural network (ANN) estimation models are therefore developed to estimate solar radiation, but the existing ANN models are mostly based on conventional meteorological data; clouds, aerosols, and water vapor are rarely considered because of a lack of instrumental observations at the conventional meteorological stations. Based on clouds, aerosols, and precipitable water-vapor data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), along with conventional meteorological data, back-propagation (BP) neural network method was developed in this work with Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm (referred to as LM-BP) to simulate monthly-mean daily global solar radiation (M-GSR). Comparisons were carried out among three M-GSR estimates, including the one presented in this study, the multiple linear regression (MLR) model, and remotely-sensed radiation products by Cloud and the Earth’s radiation energy system (CERES). The validation results indicate that the accuracy of the ANN model is better than that of the MLR model and CERES radiation products, with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.34 MJ·m−2 (ANN), 2.46 MJ·m−2 (MLR), 2.11 MJ·m−2 (CERES), respectively. Finally, according to the established ANN-based method, the M-GSR of 36 conventional meteorological stations for 12 months was estimated in 2012 in the study area. Solar radiation data based on the LM-BP method of this study can provide some reference for the utilization of solar and heat energy.