Automotive Aftermarket Forecast in a Changing World: The Stakeholders’ Perceptions Boost!

Abstract

This study presents a methodology for forecasting the medium– and long–term real revenues of the automotive post–sales service sectors, assuming the automobile industry is nowadays undergoing a deep process of transformation. There are several conditioning factors, usage as well as environmental reasons, that makes past times an unreasonable guide for a future forecast. Firstly, we estimate, using regression models, the most important variables for the automobile sector that will affect the long–term forecasts of the automotive aftermarket’s revenues. Secondly, we apply participatory methods to quantify the impact of the new conditioning factors. This is a research tool used for the Spanish automotive aftermarket. Our results indicate how stakeholders’ perceptions modulate the forecasts for those economic sectors involved in a disrupted changing business model.