Relationships between Thermal Environment and Air Pollution of Seoul’s 25 Districts Using Vector Autoregressive Granger Causality

Abstract

Rising temperatures and heightened air pollution are widespread across many parts of the world today. Despite some initial attempts for analysis, the intricate interconnection between the two still requires further investigation. This study focuses on Seoul, South Korea, by adopting vector-autoregressive-based Granger causality tests to unravel the nuances of these relationships at the district level. While bidirectional Granger causality links between temperature and urban heat island intensity, as well as between PM10 concentration and urban pollution island intensity, are found in many cases, our findings reveal diverse causal relationships that are evident in the districts. These findings underscore the necessity for evidence-based strategies to guide planners and policymakers in addressing the challenges of rising temperatures and air pollution in urban areas.