Perception and Reality: How the Depths of the High Waters in Venice Apparently Change with the Reference System

Abstract

Over the centuries, the depths of the most severe storm surges that have flooded Venice have been measured using different reference frames, i.e., related to the algae belt (CM), mean sea level (MSL), local land (ZMPS), large-scale leveling (IGM), and satellite altimetry (SA). Some reference frames, i.e., IGM and SA, are absolute, while the others are relative and represent two different physical points of view, i.e., CM and MSL refer to the sea that is rising and ZMPS refers to the land that is subsiding. The perceptions derived from the different systems are contradictory. This paper discusses and compares surges from 1821 to 2021 measured with these frames, also including the commemorative plaques that report the flood depths on walls in Venice. The paper explains the consequences of a change in frame and zero reference, and it transforms the flooding depths from the original systems to make them homogeneous. The severity of flooding changes in terms of rating with the choice of frame. In the 19th century, five storm surges exceeded the famous level of 1966 and, if they were to recur today or in the future, the sea level rise and the local land subsidence that have occurred in the meantime would greatly exacerbate the situation.