Clustering Analysis of Seismicity in the Anatolian Region with Implications for Seismic Hazard

Author:

Zaccagnino Davide1ORCID,Telesca Luciano2ORCID,Tan Onur3ORCID,Doglioni Carlo14ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Earth Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Roma, Italy

2. Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council, 85050 Tito, Italy

3. Department of Geophysical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, Istanbul 34320, Turkey

4. National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, 00143 Roma, Italy

Abstract

The Anatolian region is one of the most seismically active tectonic settings in the world. Here, we perform a clustering analysis of Turkish seismicity using an updated version of the Turkish Homogenized Earthquake Catalogue (TURHEC), which contains the recent developments of the still ongoing Kahramanmaraş seismic sequence. We show that some statistical properties of seismic activity are related to the regional seismogenic potential. Mapping the local and global coefficients of variation of inter-event times of crustal seismicity which occurred during the last three decades, we find that territories prone to major seismic events during the last century usually host globally clustered and locally Poissonian seismic activity. We suggest that regions with seismicity associated with higher values of the global coefficient of variation of inter-event times, CV, are likely to be more prone to hosting large earthquakes in the near future than other regions characterized by lower values, if their largest seismic events have the same magnitude. If our hypothesis is confirmed, clustering properties should be considered as a possible additional information source for the assessment of seismic hazard. We also find positive correlations between global clustering properties, the maximum magnitude and the seismic rate, while the b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law is weakly correlated with them. Finally, we identify possible changes in such parameters before and during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş seismic sequence.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

General Physics and Astronomy

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