Farmers’ Non-Agricultural Income, Agricultural Technological Progress, and Sustainable Food Supply Security: Insights from China

Abstract

This study explores the intricate relationships among farmers’ non-agricultural income, agricultural technological progress, and sustainable food supply security using China’s provincial panel data from 2003 to 2021. Employing multidimensional fixed effects, moderated effects, and threshold regression models, the analysis yields several key findings. First, an inverted “U” shaped relationship exists between farmers’ non-agricultural income and sustainable food supply security, where food security is initially promoted but subsequently suppressed as income increases. Agricultural technological progress significantly enhances sustainable food supply security, and mechanism analysis confirms a moderating effect of technological progress on the relationship between non-agricultural income and food security. Second, regional heterogeneity analysis shows that the inverted “U” shaped inflection point for farmers’ non-agricultural income occurs earliest in the western region and main food-producing areas, with the strongest impact observed in the eastern region and main non-food-producing areas. Agricultural technological progress more significantly promotes sustainable development in the central and western regions and main food-producing areas. Third, threshold testing reveals a non-linear double threshold effect of agricultural technological progress on sustainable food supply security, with non-agricultural income thresholds at 6.759 and 9.427. Beyond these thresholds, the promotion effect of technological progress exhibits a “flat-steep-flat” S-shaped fluctuation. These findings suggest a need for a balanced approach to managing farmers’ non-agricultural income growth, maintaining incentives for sustainable food production and increasing financial and technological investments in central and western regions to secure China’s long-term food supply security.