Assessing Future Flood Risk and Developing Integrated Flood Risk Management Strategies: A Case Study from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

Abstract

As Earth’s climate changes, individual nations must develop adaptation plans to respond to increasing or new climate risks. This study focuses on changing flood risk in England, UK, and examines the policy framework and actions that underpin England’s adaptation from a flood risk management (FRM) perspective. Specifically, the flood risk projections that fed into the UK’s Climate Change Risk Assessment were analysed alongside newly developed FRM adaptation portfolios that modified the flood risk projections to identify the potential of different measures to reduce Expected Annual Damages (EAD). The key findings indicate that: the range of EAD for all flood sources combined is projected to increase by 18–160% by the 2080s depending on the climate change, population growth and adaptation assumptions applied; adopting an enhanced adaptation approach presents an opportunity to manage much of the climate driven change in flood risk, particularly from river flooding; EAD from coastal flood risk shows the greatest increase relative to present day; and surface water flooding will become an increasingly more significant source of flood risk. Interpretation of the results in the context of the policy framework shows how greater coordination and integration of risk managers and interventions is required to improve adaptation planning.