Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling for Uncertainty Quantification in Operational Thermal Resistance of LED Systems

Abstract

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is central to prognostics and reliability assessment of light-emitting diode (LED) systems. Their unknown long-term service life remaining when subject to specific operating conditions is affected by various sources of uncertainty stemming from production of individual system components, application of the whole system, measurement and operation. To enhance the reliability of model-based predictions, it is essential to account for all of these uncertainties in a systematic manner. This paper proposes a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework for inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) in LED operation under thermal loading. The main focus is on the LED systems’ operational thermal resistances, which are subject to system and application variability. Posterior inference is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme using the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) algorithm. Performance of the method is investigated for simulated data, which allow to focus on different UQ aspects in applications. Findings from an application scenario in which the impact of disregarded uncertainty on RUL prediction is discussed highlight the need for a comprehensive UQ to allow for reliable predictions.