Evolution of Renewable Energy in BRI Countries: A Combined Econometric and Decomposition Approach

Abstract

The development of renewable energy is an important cooperation theme among countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI countries). Through map description, we first explore the changes in renewable energy consumption in BRI countries. Then, β-convergence is employed to examine the development direction of renewable energy consumption in BRI countries. Finally, based on the expanded Kaya equation, we decompose the factors effecting renewable energy consumption into energy structure effect, energy intensity effect, low-carbon economic effect, carbon emission effect, population distribution effect and population effect. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) is utilized to calculate the contribution of each factor to renewable energy consumption in the expanded Kaya equation. Our research reaches the following conclusions: (1) β-convergence exists in renewable energy consumption among BRI countries, indicating that it will converge to a relatively stable level, and countries with low renewable energy consumption will increase their renewable energy consumption with a higher convergence rate to chase the countries with high renewable energy consumption. (2) Energy structure effect makes a positive impact on renewable energy consumption, and is the main contributor to renewable energy consumption. (3) The energy intensity effect makes a negative contribution to renewable energy consumption, and the negative impact has deepened in recent years. (4) Both the low-carbon economic effect and the carbon emission effect have positive impacts on renewable energy consumption. Our research not only provides a description of the experience of developing renewable energy for BRI countries, but also makes reference to other organizations.