The Effects of Climate Change on Pine Wilt Disease in South Korea: Challenges and Prospects

Abstract

This study assessed the damage and the potential economic threat of pine wilt disease, which is the most common disease caused by forest-integrated pests in Korea. To estimate the rate of damage by pine wilt disease, a structural damage function was implemented. The nonlinear panel probit model and the generalized estimated equation (GEE) were used for the estimation. The estimated damage function and representative concentration pathways (RCP)8.5 data were used to predict the future damage rate by pests caused by climate change. In the assessment of the economic impact on forests, the dynamic optimization model was introduced. The concept of environmental payment was introduced to consider the economic value of non-timber benefits. For the economic analysis, three scenarios were established, i.e., no pest outbreak (baseline), pest infestation (no control), and pest infestation (prevention and control), and the forest management revenues that included the wood and non-wood materials for each scenario were compared. On the basis of the results of the analysis, a simulation was conducted to investigate the changes in forest management revenues according to changes in timber market prices, environmental payments, and climate change. The prediction results confirmed that the future damage by pine wilt disease and the extent of the damaged areas will increase as a consequence of climate change. In addition, the analysis of the economic impact showed that the increase of pest damage caused by climate change will worsen the forest management revenues. As pest damage brought on by climate change is expected to increase uncertainties and economic losses, there is a marked need to review the policies that so far have been focusing only on post-response tasks. In addition to a proper post-incident management, it is necessary to secure the sense of control and stability over the matter through the reinforcement of pre-incident management.