Drought Dynamics and Drought Hazard Assessment in Southwest Bulgaria

Abstract

Awareness of the potential threat posed by drought necessitates the implementation of appropriate procedures to enable effective and systematic actions aimed at mitigating, or at least partially limiting, the impacts of drought events. This paper seeks to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of atmospheric drought in the period 1961–2020 and assesses drought hazards in southwest Bulgaria, which is a region susceptible to periodic water shortages. In this study, the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), accounting for both precipitation and temperature changes, was used to analyze drought characteristics. The analysis reveals significant temporal changes and spatial differences in drought patterns across southwest Bulgaria. The northeastern part of the region, including the Sofia district, exhibits the lowest risk of drought, while the central part of the region shows a tendency toward moderate and occasional low drought events. Some stations, particularly in the southern part of the region, consistently experienced more severe drought conditions (Blagoevgrad and Sandanski), as indicated by negative SPEI values in different time scales (3, 6, and 12 months). Results indicate an increased frequency of droughts during 1990–2020 compared to 1961–1990, which was driven by climate change and human activities. Across all stations and in both SPEI time scales, the period from the early to mid-1990s was characterized by significant droughts. The study of drought hazards using short-term and long-term SPEI analysis reveals different levels of drought risk and increased hazard from the northern to southern parts of the study area. The share of areas with a high drought hazard exceeds 40% of the territory in the areas with a transitional and continental-Mediterranean climate. Based on the results, the paper highlights the need to integrate drought risk assessments with regional planning to improve agricultural resilience and water resource management in response to anticipated droughts, especially in drought-prone areas such as southwest Bulgaria.