Information and Entropy Aspects of the Specifics of Regional Road Traffic Accident Rate in Russia

Abstract

The aim of this research is to study the specifics of the road accident rate formation processes in regions of the Russian Federation (2021) using information-entropic analysis. The typical research approaches (correlation-regression, factorial analyses, simulation modelling, etc.) do not always allow us to identify its specificity. It is impossible to evaluate the quality of the researched process’s structure using these methods. However, this knowledge is required to understand the distinctions between high-quality road safety management and its opposite. In order to achieve the goal of the research methodology based on the use of the classical approaches of C. Shannon, the quantitative value of information entropy H was elaborated. The key components of this method are the modelling of the cause-and-effect chain of road accident rate formation and the consideration of the relative significances of individual blocks of the process in achieving the final result. During the research the required statistical data were collected and the structure of the road accident rate formation process in 82 regions of the Russian Federation in the format “Population P—Fleet of vehicles NVh—Road Traffic Accidents NRA—RTA Victims NV—Fatality Cases ND” was analyzed. The fact that the structure of the road accident rate formation process is extremely specific in different Russian regions was shown. Exactly this specificity forms the degree of ambiguity in the state of Russian regional road safety provision systems in terms of the probability of death in road accidents. The main conclusion of this research is that information-entropic analysis can be successfully used to assess the structural quality of road safety systems.