Vessel Trajectory Prediction Model Based on AIS Sensor Data and Adaptive Chaos Differential Evolution Support Vector Regression (ACDE-SVR)

Abstract

There are difficulties in obtaining accurate modeling of ship trajectories with traditional prediction methods. For example, neural networks are prone to falling into local optima and there are a small number of Automatic Identification System (AIS) information samples regarding target ships acquired in real time at sea. In order to improve the accuracy of ship trajectory predictions and solve these problems, a trajectory prediction model based on support vector regression (SVR) is proposed. Ship speed, course, time stamp, longitude and latitude from AIS data were selected as sample features and the wavelet threshold de-noising method was used to process the ship position data. The adaptive chaos differential evolution (ACDE) algorithm was used to optimize the internal model parameters to improve convergence speed and prediction accuracy. AIS sensor data corresponding to a certain section of the Tianjin Port ships were selected, on which SVR, Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Back Propagation (BP) neural network model trajectory prediction simulations were carried out. A comparison of the results shows that the trajectory prediction model based on ACDE-SVR has higher and more stable prediction accuracy, requires less time and is simple, feasible and efficient.