The Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Perspective from Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between climate variables such as rainfall amount, temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and the triple dimension of food security (availability, accessibility, and utilization) in a panel of 25 sub-Saharan African countries from 1985 to 2018. After testing for cross-sectional dependence, unit root and cointegration, the study estimated the pool mean group (PMG) panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The empirical outcome revealed that rainfall had a significantly positive effect on food availability, accessibility, and utilization in the long run. In contrast, temperature was harmful to food availability and accessibility and had no impact on food utilization. Lastly, CO2 emission positively impacted food availability and accessibility but did not affect food utilization. The study took a step further by integrating some additional variables and performed the panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) regression to ensure the robustness of the preceding PMG results. The control variables yielded meaningful results in most cases, so did the FMOLS and DOLS regression. The Granger causality test was conducted to determine the causal link, if any, among the variables. There was evidence of a short-run causal relationship between food availability and CO2 emission. Food accessibility exhibited a causal association with temperature, whereas food utilization was strongly connected with temperature. CO2 emission was linked to rainfall. Lastly, a bidirectional causal link was found between rainfall and temperature. Recommendations to the national, sub-regional, and regional policymakers are addressed and discussed.