Water-Scarcity Footprint Associated with Crop Expansion in Northeast China: A Case Study Based on AquaCrop Modeling

Abstract

In recent decades, China’s crop production experienced a spatial shift, and this shift may significantly influence the national water resources due to the geographical mismatch between water resources and cropland. By applying the widely applied AquaCrop model, this study quantified the impact of grain crop (rice and maize) expansion in northeastern China on the country’s water resources. We found that the production of rice and maize increased by 60% and 43%, respectively, in the northeast, whereas the water scarcity-footprint (WSF) increased by 200% and 125%. Using sensitivity analysis, we found that the increase in the WSF was mainly caused by the increase in regional water scarcity, as reflected by a water scarcity index, and by the increase in production. To alleviate regional water scarcity, crop expansion into regions that experience high water stress should be constrained. A detailed reassessment of this situation is urgently needed.