The Evolutionary Path of the Center of Gravity for Water Use, the Population, and the Economy, and Their Decomposed Contributions in China from 1965 to 2019

Abstract

Sustainable development is a hot issue in global research today. As a large developing country, China has increasingly prominent conflicts between water use, the population, and the economy, so it is necessary to solve the sustainable development issues represented by water use, the population, and the economy. To explore the evolutionary process for water use, the population, and the economy in China, we calculated the evolutionary path of the center of gravity for water use, the population, and the economy in China from 1965 to 2019 by using the center of gravity model, and we calculated the decomposed contributions of the evolutionary path of the center of gravity for water use, the population, and the economy in China from 1965 to 2019, which the six major areas in China contributed to, by using the center of gravity decomposed contributions model. The results show the following: (1) As a whole, the center of gravity cumulative yearly moving distance for water use was 835.77 km, and the center of gravity moving direction as well as angle were north by east, 18.95°. The center of gravity cumulative yearly moving distance for the population was 113.40 km, and the center of gravity moving direction as well as angle were south by west, 31.50°. The center of gravity cumulative yearly moving distance for the economy was 449.83 km, and the center of gravity moving direction as well as angle were south by east, 8.63°. (2) From the decomposed value contribution rate of the evolutionary path of the center of gravity in the latitude direction for water use, the population, and the economy in China from 1965 to 2019, which the six major areas in China contributed to, Northeast China contributed the most (42.26%, 34.09%, and 39.37%, respectively). The increasing proportion of total water use consumption in Northeast China most positively affected the evolutionary path of the center of gravity for water use in China, moving northwards from 1965 to 2019, and the decreasing proportion of the total population as well as gross regional product in Northeast China most negatively affected the evolutionary path of the center of gravity for the population and economy in China, moving southwards from 1965 to 2019.