Do Agricultural Productive Services Impact the Carbon Emissions of the Planting Industry in China: Promotion or Inhibition?

Abstract

Reducing carbon emissions from planting (PCE) is crucial for achieving the “dual carbon” objective within the agricultural sector. This paper aims to investigate the impact of agricultural productive services (APSs) on carbon emissions in the planting industry, providing novel insights into reducing carbon emissions in this field. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2005 to 2021, this study measured the PCE and the level of APSs. The internal relationship between the APSs and PCE is subsequently examined empirically using various statistical models, including the fixed effect model, instrumental variable model, mediating effect model, and threshold effect model. The findings suggest that the PCE experienced an initial increase, followed by a subsequent decrease between 2005 and 2021, with the peak observed in 2015. APSs has a significant inhibitory effect on PCE, which remains significant even after conducting various robustness tests. However, the carbon emission reduction effect of APSs varies across different crop-producing areas. The study also revealed that APSs can inhibit PCE by facilitating land transfer. Additionally, the inhibitory effect of APSs on PCE is influenced by the scale of land management and exhibits a U-shaped nonlinear relationship. To effectively reduce PCE and achieve sustainable agricultural development, policymakers should actively promote the integration of APSs with modern agriculture and form moderate-scale operations by facilitating land transfer to maximize APSs’ carbon emission reduction effect.