Accident Frequency Prediction Model for Flat Rural Roads in Serbia

Abstract

Traffic accidents, by their nature, are random events; therefore, it is difficult to estimate the exact places and times of their occurrences and the true nature of their impacts. Although they are hard to precisely predict, preventative actions can be taken and their numbers (in a certain period) can be approximately predicted. In this study, we investigated the relationship between accident frequency and factors that affect accident frequency; we used accident data for events that occurred on a flat rural state road in Serbia. The analysis was conducted using five statistical models, i.e., Poisson, negative binomial, random effect negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial models. The results indicated that the random effect negative binomial model outperformed the other models in terms of goodness-of-fit measures; it was chosen as the accident prediction model for flat rural roads. Four explanatory variables—annual average daily traffic, segment length, number of horizontal curves, and access road density—were found to significantly affect accident frequency. The results of this research can help road authorities make decisions about interventions and investments in road networks, designing new roads, and reconstructing existing roads.