Violent Drug Markets: Relation between Homicide, Drug Trafficking and Socioeconomic Disadvantages: A Test of Contingent Causation in Pereira, Colombia

Abstract

The drug/violence relationship has been a recurrent topic of interest in criminology and sociology. This interest began with the crack epidemic in the 1980s and continues due to the consolidation and functioning of the cocaine markets of Latin American drug trafficking organizations. We approach the drug/violence relationship in Pereira (Colombia) which is strategic for the global cocaine market and for the Colombian domestic market. This city has an average homicide rate of 38.5 per 100,000 inhabitants (2010–2019). To test the drug/violence relationship, we used Goldstein’s systemic violence theory and Zimring and Hawkins’ contingent causality theory. We analyze the influence of socioeconomic and drug trafficking variables on homicides between the years 2010 and 2019. Our dataset comes from official Colombian government sources. We performed multivariate regression modeling through structural equation modeling with partial least squares (PLS-SEM). Our model was consistent and obtained statistical significance for all years, resulting in a good approximation to the study of the phenomenon. Based on the evidence, we can affirm that there is a relationship among violence/drug trafficking/socioeconomic disadvantages, thus confirming the contingent causation theory.