Probability of Deriving a Yearly Transition Probability Matrix for Land-Use Dynamics

Abstract

Takada’s group developed a method for estimating the yearly transition matrix by calculating the mth power roots of a transition matrix with an interval of m years. However, the probability of obtaining a yearly transition matrix with real and positive elements is unknown. In this study, empirical verification based on transition matrices from previous land-use studies and Monte-Carlo simulations were conducted to estimate the probability of obtaining an appropriate yearly transition probability matrix. In 62 transition probability matrices of previous land-use studies, 54 (87%) could provide a positive or small-negative solution. For randomly generated matrices with differing sizes or power roots, the probability of obtaining a positive or small-negative solution is low. However, the probability is relatively large for matrices with large diagonal elements, exceeding 90% in most cases. These results indicate that Takada et al.’s method is a powerful tool for analyzing land-use dynamics.