Tidal Flood Risk on Salt Farming: Evaluation of Post Events in the Northern Part of Java Using a Parametric Approach

Abstract

Tidal flood risk threatens coastal urban areas and their agriculture and aquaculture, including salt farming. There is, therefore, an urgency to map and portray risk to reduce casualties and loss. In the floodplain of Cirebon, West Java, where salt farming dominates the landscape, this type of flooding has frequently occurred and disrupted the local economy. Based on two recorded events in 2016 and 2018 as benchmarks, this paper formulates an innovative approach to analyze tidal flood risk in salt farming areas. Our study considers the fundamental concepts of hazard and vulnerability, then uses selective parameters for evaluation in an Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP)-based Geographic Information System. The analytical process includes weighting criteria judged by experts and uses the resulting values to define the spatial characteristics of each salt parcel. Our high-resolution simulations show that the two flood events in 2016 and 2018 affected almost all salt production areas, particularly in the eastern, middle, and western parts of the Cirebon floodplain, although to very different degrees. The study also uses a physical-based approach to validate these results. The damage estimates show a strong positive correlation for economic loss (r = 0.81, r = 0.84). Finally, the study suggests that our multi-methods approach to assessing tidal flood risk should be considered in disaster mitigation planning and integrated coastal zone management in salt farming areas.