Landsat Satellite Image-Derived Area Evolution and the Driving Factors Affecting Hulun Lake from 1986 to 2020

Abstract

The area fluctuation of lakes directly affects the stability of the surrounding ecological environment. Research on the area evolution of lakes and the driving factors affecting it plays an important role in sustainable water resource management. In this study, Hulun Lake, located in the Hulunbuir grassland, was taken as the research object. Based on remote sensing images of the Hulun Lake area from 1986 to 2020, MNDWI interpretation was used to obtain the change law of lake surface area over a long time frame. Combined with natural factors and anthropogenic factors, Pearson correlation analysis and principal component analysis were used to analyze the driving force. The results showed that (1) in the past 35 years, the water surface area of Hulun Lake has decreased significantly. The dynamic change in water area could be divided into four stages. The areas with dramatic changes in water area are distributed mainly in the northeast and south of Hulun Lake. (2) In terms of natural factors, the meteorological factors based on evaporation and relative humidity, the runoff of rivers entering the lake, and the vegetation with medium-high coverage and medium-low coverage had significant effects. In terms of anthropogenic factors, the population had the most significant impact. The artificial water diversion project had different degrees of influence on the response of the Hulun Lake area change to natural factors. (3) Anthropogenic factors were the main driving force causing the rapid change in the Hulun Lake area from 2000 to 2016, explaining 48% of the change in the Hulun Lake area. These research results can provide a scientific basis for the development and utilization of water resources and sustainable development in the Hulun Lake area.