Energy Transitions in Yunnan Province Based on Production Function Theory

Abstract

Yunnan is rich in renewable energy resources. An understanding of its energy structure and developmental trajectories would assist in enabling the design of suitable decarbonizing pathways and how to fit into the national 30–60 agenda. Drawing from endogenous growth theory and time series analysis, our study employs comparative functions and scenario assessments to predict the changes in the key economic indicators, such as GDP, industrial structure shifts, population, and urbanization rates, during the low-carbon transition. We further show energy structure patterns and intensity trends using regression-modeling and data-fitting methods. Based on our analyses, we project that by 2035, Yunnan’s GDP will grow to CNY 5.4761 trillion, with secondary and tertiary industries contributing 88.8%. The population is estimated to grow to 52.08 million with an urbanization rate of 70%. Moreover, fossil fuel energy consumption is forecasted to diminish to 38.7%, and energy consumption intensity is projected to be reduced to 0.38 tons of standard coal per CNY 10,000. If these metrics follow the inherent endogenous growth trend, Yunnan’s emissions are forecasted to peak at around 220 million tons of CO2 by 2030. These findings not only provide a data foundation for Yunnan’s low-carbon development goals but also illuminate pathways for regions rich in renewable resources to transition towards sustainable growth, emphasizing the harmony between advancement and environmental stewardship.