Exploring Predictive Factors for Heart Failure Progression in Hypertensive Patients Based on Medical Diagnosis Data from the MIMIC-IV Database

Abstract

Heart failure is associated with a significant mortality rate, and an elevated prevalence of this condition has been noted among hypertensive patients. The identification of predictive factors for heart failure progression in hypertensive individuals is crucial for early intervention and improved patient outcomes. In this study, we aimed to identify these predictive factors by utilizing medical diagnosis records for hypertension patients from the MIMIC-IV database. In particular, we employed only diagnostic history prior to hypertension to enable patients to anticipate the onset of heart failure at the moment of hypertension diagnosis. In the methodology, chi-square tests and XGBoost modeling were applied to examine age-specific predictive factors across four groups: AL (all ages), G1 (0 to 65 years), G2 (65 to 80 years), and G3 (over 80 years). As a result, the chi-square tests identified 34, 28, 20, and 10 predictive factors for the AL, G1, G2, and G3 groups, respectively. Meanwhile, the XGBoost modeling uncovered 19, 21, 27, and 33 predictive factors for these respective groups. Ultimately, our findings reveal 21 overall predictive factors, encompassing conditions such as atrial fibrillation, the use of anticoagulants, kidney failure, obstructive pulmonary disease, and anemia. These factors were assessed through a comprehensive review of the existing literature. We anticipate that the results will offer valuable insights for the risk assessment of heart failure in hypertensive patients.