Affiliation:
1. China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China
2. Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Jiangxi Electric Power Co., Ltd., Nanchang 330029, China
3. State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200120, China
4. College of Architecture Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
Abstract
Flexible air conditioning energy use, leveraging building thermal inertia and thermal energy storage, can effectively reduce building carbon emissions. The carbon reduction potential of flexible energy use in air conditioning is influenced by uncertainties, such as dynamic electricity carbon emission factors. To accurately quantify this potential, a methodology for calculating the carbon reduction achievable through flexible energy use in air conditioning, considering these uncertainties, is proposed. First, the sources of uncertainty in air conditioning energy use are identified and mathematically described. Next, the relationship between uncertainty, load, and carbon emissions is analyzed. Subsequently, the carbon reduction mechanisms of various flexible air conditioning energy use methods, based on building thermal inertia and energy storage, are, respectively, explained, and corresponding mathematical models are established. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify the feasibility of the method and reveal the characteristics of the carbon reduction potential of various flexible energy use methods, considering uncertainty.