Lockout, Lockdown and Land Use: Exploring the Spatio-Temporal Evolution Patterns of Licensed Venues in Sydney, Australia between 2012 and 2021 in the Context of NSW Public Policy

Abstract

The hospitality industry in Sydney, Australia, has been subject to several regulatory interventions in the last decade, including lockout laws, COVID-19 lockdowns and land use planning restrictions. This study has sought to explore the spatial implications of these policies in Inner Sydney between 2012 to 2021. Methods based in spatial analysis were applied to a database of over 40,000 licensed venues. Point pattern analysis and spatial autocorrelation methods were used to identify spatially significant venue clusters. Space-time cube and emerging-hot-spot methods were used to explore clusters over time. The results indicate that most venues are located in the Sydney CBD on business-zoned land and show a high degree of spatial clustering. Spatio-temporal analysis reveals this clustering to be consistent over time, with variations between venue types. Venue numbers declined following the introduction of the lockout laws, with numbers steadily recovering in the following years. There was no discernible change in the number of venues following the COVID-19 lockdowns; however, economic data suggest that there has been a decline in revenue. Some venues were identified as having temporarily ceased trading, with these clustered in the Sydney CBD. The findings of this study provide a data-driven approach to assist policymakers and industry bodies in better understanding the spatial implications of policies targeting the hospitality sector and will assist with recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. Further research utilising similar methods could assess the impacts of further COVID-19 lockdowns as experienced in Sydney in 2021.