A New Ensemble Prediction Method for Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) Mixtures Containing Different Constituents

Abstract

Fatigue and rutting are two common damage types in asphalt pavements. Reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP), as a sustainable approach in the pavement industry, deals with the foregoing damage. Fatigue and rutting characteristics of asphalt pavement are generally assessed using laboratory tests, taking a long time and consuming significant amounts of raw material. This study aims to propose a novel approach for predicting fatigue and rutting performance of RAP mixtures. A new ensemble prediction method, named COA-KNN, is introduced by combining the coyote optimization algorithm and K-nearest neighbor to increase the accuracy of fatigue and rutting prediction. In order to evaluate the accuracy, the proposed method was compared against robust prediction methods, including random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), decision tree regression (DT), and multiple linear regression (MLR). Afterward, the influence of each variable on the mentioned damages is examined, and the variables are ranked based on their relative influence on the mentioned damages. The results suggest that COA-KNN outperformed other prediction techniques when comparing different performance indicators. Total binder content in asphalt mixes and the PG span of the virgin binder added to the recycled asphalt mixture had the highest relative influence on fatigue and rutting performance, respectively.