Convergence and the Matthew Effect in the European Union Based on the DESI Index

Abstract

The European Commission (EC) has monitored Member States' digital progress through the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) since 2014. The DESI index currently ranks the EU Member States and monitors their progress based on four core and 33 individual indicators. We sought to determine whether convergence between the Member States could be detected using the DESI’s annual databases. By examining the variation in the indices, we propose the existence of a so-called “Matthew effect”, i.e., the “rich get richer” syndrome among the 27 EU Member States. We also hypothesised that the COVID-19 pandemic would influence the change in the DESI. Issues investigated were those using bibliometric, statistical-mathematical methods. The σ-convergence analysis was used to estimate the reduction over time of the differences between the Member States, while the β-convergence analysis was used to estimate the rate of catching up with the initial level of development. A PCA analysis was performed to verify the Mathew effect with additional λ-variances considering real GDP per capita change. The σ-convergence was confirmed over the period 2016–2021. The β-convergence was significantly confirmed, and the research also revealed that the half-life of catching up is approximately 20 years. The suggestion of a Matthew effect in the 2016–2021 period, although not significantly confirmed, tends to suggest its existence. The COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the value of the DESI index is likely to be affected, but future studies are needed to find support for this hypothesis. The study concludes that convergence between the EU-27 Member States can be detected based on the DESI, but this does not imply convergence for all four core DESI indicators.