Combining Sea Level Rise Inundation Impacts, Tidal Flooding and Extreme Wind Events along the Abu Dhabi Coastline

Abstract

This paper describes the development of a two-dimensional, basin-scale tidal model with waves and wave run-up to determine the inundation impacts on the Abu Dhabi coastline due to the combined effect of sea level rise, tidal flooding, storm surge and waves. The model combines a hydrodynamics model (DELFT3D), a spectral wave model (SWAN) and wave run-up. A high horizontal resolution (down to about 30 m) is employed in the vicinity of Abu Dhabi—a city built on a system of mangrove islands along the Arabian Gulf coast—to enable prediction of impact at the scale of the local infrastructure, such as individual highway links. The model confirms that, with a rise in sea level of 0.5 m, the islands along the outer coast of Abu Dhabi will experience inundation due to tidal flooding, wind, and high Shamal-induced waves. The incorporation of the wind and waves results in a prediction of more than double the area found underwater within the study area (from 82 to 188 km2). The inner water channel regions of Abu Dhabi, while mostly unaffected by wind-driven wave events, are still vulnerable to tidal flooding. Finally, the paper demonstrates the use of the model to predict whether protection of one segment of the city’s coastline will adversely affect the inundation potential of nearby unprotected segments.