Analysis of Changes in Water Flow after Passing through the Planned Dam Reservoir Using a Mixture Distribution in the Face of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Nysa Kłodzka River, Poland

Abstract

Climate change and extreme weather events have the potential to increase the occurrences of flooding and hydrological droughts. Dam reservoir operation can mitigate or aggravate this impact. This study aims to evaluate the influence of the planned Kamieniec Ząbkowicki dam reservoir on the flow patterns of the Nysa Kłodzka river in the context of changing hydrological conditions and climate change. In the study, a 40-year observational series of hydrological data was used to simulate changes in water flow through the river valley in a numerical model. This simulation was conducted both for the natural river valley and for the same river valley but with the added reservoir dam. Flow simulations revealed that dam operation increased downstream flow values, reducing variability in extreme high-flow events. Addition, the mixture log-normal distribution shows that the operation of the dam resulted in a reduction in the variability of both low flows and extreme high-flow events. Furthermore, the model illustrates that moderate-flow conditions remain relatively stable and similar before and after dam construction. The Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen slope trend test and Innovative Trend Analysis indicated that the dam had a significant impact on flow trends, reducing the negative trend. This hydrotechnical structure stabilizes and regulates flows, especially in response to climate-induced changes. These findings highlight the effectiveness of the dam in mitigating flood risk and supporting water resource management. It is essential to consider the role of the dam in adapting to changing hydrological conditions influenced by climate change. For practical application, efficient flow regulation by reservoir administration is crucial.