Time-Series Analysis of Mining-Induced Subsidence in the Arid Region of Mongolia Based on SBAS-InSAR

Abstract

Mongolia’s substantial mineral resources have played a pivotal role in its economic progress, with mining activities significantly contributing to this development. However, these continuous mining operations, particularly at the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine, have induced land subsidence that threatens both production activities and poses risks of geological and other natural disasters. This study employs the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) technique to monitor and analyze time-series surface subsidence using 120 Sentinel-1A datasets from 2018 to 2022. The findings reveal that the SBAS-InSAR method successfully captures the subsidence and its spatial distribution at Oyu Tolgoi, with the maximum cumulative subsidence reaching −742.01 mm and the highest annual average subsidence rate at −158.11 mm/year. Key drivers identified for the subsidence include variations in groundwater levels, active mining operations, and changes in surface stress. This research underscores the ongoing subsidence issue at the Oyu Tolgoi mining area, providing crucial insights that could aid in enhancing mining safety and environmental conservation in the region.