Impact of Geographic Distribution of COVID-19 Cases on Hotels’ Performances: Case of Polish Cities

Abstract

The main goal of the article is to describe the short-term impacts of reported new cases and deaths of the COVID-19 disease on hotels’ performances in the nine major Polish urban hotel markets: Kraków, Warszawa, Poznań, Wrocław, Gdańsk, Lublin, Łódź, Katowice, and Sopot. Time range of the analysis covers the period from January 5, 2020 (the beginning of the very first week when the COVID-19 cases were evidenced) to March 14, 2020 (the initial phase of lockdown was introduced by the Polish government). Various geographical contexts of the COVID-19 impacts are considered: national, European, and global. Generalized method of moments was applied to investigate the influence of reported COVID-19 cases (deaths) on both occupancy and revenue per available room. The results show that the most significant, negative impact of the pandemic on hotel performances is confirmed at the European level of the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, the negative influence of national cases of COVID-19 is more significant in less internationalized (or less-populated) urban destinations. Thus, the hotel industry (especially in the most internationalized, biggest Polish cities) might be recovered only when issues of the COVID-19 epidemic will be solved at the European level.