Life Cycle Emissions of Passenger Vehicles in China: A Sensitivity Analysis of Multiple Influencing Factors

Abstract

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles, new energy vehicles are actively promoted by China’s government. Various power system types are being developed and their sales keep increasing. However, there is uncertainty about the greenhouse gas emission of different vehicle types. This paper studies the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in China. A calculation model is established with consideration of all types of power systems, model classes, and electric driving ranges. In order to calculate and compare the effect of carbon emission reduction on all types of vehicles, a sensitivity analysis is conducted in two ways to study three of the main influencing factors. The results show the carbon emission-reducing effect of different factors on different stages in the life cycle. It is known that different influencing factors have different effects on these stages. Since there is a variation in different vehicle types, the carbon reduction effect caused by these factors is different for these vehicle types. This paper describes a sensitivity analysis of three main influencing factors and puts forward relevant policy recommendations to reduce the carbon emissions of passenger cars during their life cycle based on these results. It is necessary to take the vehicle life cycle as a whole for carbon emission management. The conclusions of this paper can be used for vehicle manufacturers to decide the focus of technology research, and also have important reference significance for enterprises when making life cycle carbon reduction strategies for their products. It is also of certain value for China to formulate a medium- and long-term carbon emission reduction strategy for the passenger car industry.