Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020

Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040

Published:2023-11-18 Issue:11 Volume:30 Page:9981-9995
ISSN:1718-7729
Container-title:Current Oncology
language:en
Short-container-title:Current Oncology

Author:

Brenner Darren R.¹,Carbonell Chantelle¹^ORCID,O’Sullivan Dylan E.¹,Ruan Yibing¹,Basmadjian Robert B.¹^ORCID,Bu Vickey²,Farah Eliya¹,Loewen Shaun K.³^ORCID,Bond Tara R.⁴,Estey Angela⁴,Pujadas Botey Anna⁴⁵^ORCID,Robson Paula J.²⁴⁵

Affiliation:

1. Department of Oncology, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB T2N 4N1, Canada

2. Cancer Research & Analytics, Cancer Care Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Edmonton, AB T5J 3H1, Canada

3. Division of Radiation Oncology, University of Calgary, Tom Baker Cancer Centre, Calgary, AB T2N 4N2, Canada

4. Cancer Strategic Clinical Network, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB T2S 3C3, Canada

5. School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1C9, Canada

Abstract

The impact of cancer in Alberta is expected to grow considerably, largely driven by population growth and aging. The Future of Cancer Impact (FOCI) initiative offers an overview of the present state of cancer care in Alberta and highlights potential opportunities for research and innovation across the continuum. In this paper, we present a series of detailed projections and analyses regarding cancer epidemiological estimates in Alberta, Canada. Data on cancer incidence and mortality in Alberta (1998–2018) and limited-duration cancer prevalence in Alberta (2000–2019) were collected from the Alberta Cancer Registry. We used the Canproj package in the R software to project these epidemiological estimates up to the year 2040. To estimate the direct management costs, we ran a series of microsimulations using the OncoSim All Cancers Model. Our findings indicate that from 2020, the total number of annual new cancer cases and cancer-related deaths are projected to increase by 56% and 49% by 2040, respectively. From 2019, the five-year prevalence of all cancers in Alberta is projected to increase by 86% by 2040. In line with these trends, the overall direct cost of cancer management is estimated to increase by 53% in 2040. These estimates and projections are integral to future strategic planning and investment.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Link

https://www.mdpi.com/1718-7729/30/11/725/pdf

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