Numerical Simulation of Storm Surge Inundation in Estuarine Area Considering Multiple Influencing Factors

Abstract

With global climate change, the risk of extreme storms and storm surges in estuarine areas is increasing; thus, storm surge inundation research and prediction have become important issues to ensure sustainable development in estuarine areas. The Jitimen estuary in Guangdong Province, China, was chosen as our study area. In this study, a numerical model for simulating storm surge inundation in small regions based on unstructured triangular grids was established, and the model accuracy was validated. The typhoon characteristics in the study area were statistically analyzed based on historical data. Three experimental schemes, involving factors influencing storm surge inundation, such as typhoon landfall location, intensity, and direction, were used to evaluate the differences in the numerical results. The results showed that when the typhoon landfall direction remained unchanged and the highest tide levels at the Sanzao tide gauge station were similar, the differences between the numerical results for the typhoon landfall location and typhoon intensity schemes were less than 5%, and the inundation characteristics were similar. However, when the typhoon location and intensity were unchanged and the highest tide levels at the Sanzao tide gauge station were similar, the numerical results for the typhoon landfall direction scheme significantly differed; this result was caused by the difference in the duration of the high tide level (exceeding 3 m); these results indicated that the topographic characteristics and the typhoon landing direction had a greater impact on storm surge inundation. The results from this study can aid in the prediction of storm surge inundation information for the Jitimen estuary area when the typhoon landing direction and the maximum tide level are known.