Novel Fractional Grey Prediction Model with the Change-Point Detection for Overseas Talent Mobility Prediction

Abstract

Overseas students constitute the paramount talent resource for China, and, hence, overseas talent mobility prediction is crucial for the formulation of China’s talent strategy. This study proposes a new model for predicting the number of students studying abroad and returning students, based on the grey system theory, owing to the limited data and uncertainty of the influencing factors. The proposed model introduces change-point detection to determine the number of modeling time points, based on the fractional-order grey prediction model. We employed a change-point detection method to find the change points for determining the model length, based on the principle of new information priority, and used a fractional order accumulated generating operation to construct a grey prediction model. The two real data sets, the annual number of students studying abroad and returning students, were employed to verify the superiority of the proposed model. The results showed that the proposed model outperformed other benchmark models. Furthermore, the proposed model has been employed to predict the tendencies of overseas talent mobility in China by 2025. Further, certain policy recommendations for China’s talent strategy development have been proposed, based on the prediction results.