Energy Security Blind Spots of Gas, Oil, and Coal Exporters

Abstract

The global narrative around domestic energy security is dominated by the paradigm of import-dependent countries, and as a result the interactions of energy export activities with domestic energy systems are not generally considered. In this paper, we apply a systems approach to establish two potential blind spots in evaluating the whole-of-system energy security of energy resource exporters (actual primary energy self-sufficiency and export exposure of the domestic energy system), and examine some case studies, primarily in the Australian context, to validate the existence of these blind spots. The commencement of LNG exports from the state of Queensland is examined in detail. Furthermore, we propose two novel quantitative indicators to mitigate the blind spots established. First, a revised method is proposed to calculate energy self-sufficiency, showing for the exporters studied a less secure position than shown by the traditional method. Second, an indicator is proposed to quantify the extent of exposure of the domestic energy system to international markets through export linkages, which we have applied to Australia’s domestic energy system, showing the extent of the increase in international exposure since LNG exports from Queensland commenced in 2015–2016. Conclusions of this paper include the realization that domestic energy security for energy exporters, such as Australia and the other countries examined, is more complex and, in the cases examined, less secure than importer-oriented energy security frameworks have previously recognized. A further conclusion is established that the decoupling of energy resource exports from the domestic energy system through transition to a zero-carbon energy system based on domestic renewable energy sources can be an effective means of improving Australia’s energy security.