Atmospheric Wind and Pressure-Driven Changes in Tidal Characteristics over the Northwestern European Shelf

Abstract

Understanding drivers of tidal change is a key challenge in predicting coastal floods in the next century. Whilst interactions between tides and atmospheric surges have been studied, the effects of wind and pressure on tides on an annual scale over the Northwestern European shelf have not been investigated. Here, a modelling approach using the shallow water MARS model is carried out to understand and quantify meteorological effects on tidal characteristics. The model setup is validated against the GESLA 3 tide gauge database. Combined and relative influences of wind and pressure are investigated using four modelling scenarios: tide only; tide, wind, and pressure; tide and wind; and tide and pressure. Influences are investigated using a single year of tidal forcing, and across multiple years of meteorological data to examine the sensitivity to temporally changing meteorological conditions. It is found that meteorology influences tidal constituent amplitudes by +/−1 cm, yielding changes that may locally reach 15 cm in the predicted highest tide. Analysis of the shallow water equations show three non-linear interaction terms between tide, wind, and pressure (advective effects, quadratic parameterization of bottom friction, and shallow water effect). Part of the observed changes is shown to arise from meteorologically induced mean sea-level changes.