Infill Variability and Modelling Uncertainty Implications on the Seismic Loss Assessment of an Existing RC Italian School Building

Abstract

Past earthquake evidence has shown the high vulnerability of Italian school buildings, given by the extensive damage observed to structural and non-structural elements. Such vulnerability demonstrates the need to undertake a seismic risk assessment and reduction strategies for critical facilities and allocation of national funds for retrofit interventions to those regions where seismic risk is higher. To do so, Expected Annual Losses (EAL) are evermore considered one of the main seismic risk metrics, which can, however, be largely affected by the epistemic uncertainty that typically characterizes the material and geometrical properties of existing buildings, particularly masonry-infilled reinforced concrete (RC) ones. This paper investigates the implications of accounting for a thorough identification of sources and characterization of uncertainty in seismic loss estimates on the risk assessment of a typical Italian masonry-infilled RC school building. The variability in masonry infill properties and modeling assumptions, as well as the subsequent epistemic uncertainty, are explicitly considered in the loss estimation of the RC school building. Specifically, the impact on the expected annual loss ratio is quantified in terms of both structural and non-structural components, depending on the engineering demand parameter to which they are sensitive. The results show that, when considering the uncertainty related to the variability in masonry infills, higher loss ratios of up to 30% are obtained with respect to the available literature estimates.