Measurement and Influencing Factors of Economic Resilience over a Long Duration of COVID-19: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta, China

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic put forward a new test for an economic resilience study. Its long-term and diffusive spatiotemporal characteristics suggest that we need to pay attention to the resilience and spatial heterogeneity of cities over a longer period. This paper applied SARIMA and the performance curve to measure the economic resilience of each city under the pandemic, and explored its influencing factors and spatial heterogeneity using a geodetector and geographically weighted regression model. The results show that: (1) From 2020 to 2022, the economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta presented a downward to upward to slightly downward trend. High-resilience cities were concentrated in southern Jiangsu, while vulnerable cities were primarily located in western Anhui. The performance of regional core cities was not as strong as in previous research focusing on long-term economic resilience. (2) Fixed-asset investment, related variety, labor supply level, foreign trade dependence, and innovation level were the main influencing factors, on average. The effects of these factors had spatial heterogeneity related to the regional endowment and development quality. The findings suggest that the specificity of public health risks and the lack of coping experience may lead to a general failure of economic resilience. Identifying key factors and current weaknesses in each region can make resilience improvement strategies more targeted and effective.