Emissions Control Scenarios for Transport in Greater Cairo

Abstract

Air pollution is a major cause of premature death in Greater Cairo, but studies on emission control are limited. We used local and international data to predict the impact of transport emission control measures on sector parameters including congestion. The International Vehicle Emission model accordingly estimated quantities of criteria, toxic and global warming emissions produced by on-road vehicles. Emissions were estimated for 2019 base case (2019-BC) and projected for 2030 under the ‘do nothing’ scenario (2030-DNS) and five scenarios: fuel subsidy removal (2030-FSR), road expansions (2030-RE), public transport improvements (2030-PTI), inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs (2030-I/MP), and fuel enhancements (2030-FE). The 2030-FSR would reduce emissions by 11.2% versus 2030-DNS. The 2030-RE resulted in an average increase of 37% in emissions compared with 2030-DNS since it induces more traffic. The 2030-PTI provides alternatives to car travel; hence, cars result in an average drop of 32.8% for all emission types compared with 2030-DNS. The 2030-I/MP exhibited reductions in PM10 and toxic pollutants, of 35–54.8% compared with 2030-DNS. The 2030-FE reduced SOx, benzene and N2O emissions by 91.8%, 81% and 39.1%, respectively, compared with 2030-DNS. The 2030-I/MP is most effective in reducing health damaging pollutants while 2030-PTI positively impacts commuters’ lifestyle.