Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Energy Produced by Hydroelectric Power Plants (HEPPs) by Trend Analysis Method: A Case Study for Dogancay I–II HEPPs

Abstract

One of the most important measures taken in reducing the impact of climate change resulting from global warming is the production of energy from clean and renewable resources. Hydroelectric power plants are leading renewable energy sources. In this study, the effects of climate change on hydroelectric power plants, a renewable energy source, have been investigated. Dogancay I and II Hydroelectric Power Plants, which are built on the Sakarya River located in the Sakarya basin of Turkey, was selected as a study area. Moreover, the monthly average energy, runoff, and efficiency parameters of hydroelectric power plants and the monthly average precipitation, temperature, and humidity physical parameters of the Sakarya province, which is a working area, were considered. The length of time-series data is 48 months (2015–2018). Analysis of the data was performed with the innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) method, which is one of the newest trend analysis methods. When the studies in the literature are examined, the IPTA method is applied to hydroelectric energy data for the first time thanks to this study. Therefore, it is thought that this study will contribute a great deal to the literature. As a result of this study, a generally decreasing trend was observed in IPTA graphs of energy, flow, and efficiency parameters. In terms of the physical parameters of rainfall, temperature, and humidity, there was a decreasing trend in rainfall and humidity graphs and no trend in temperatures was observed.