Global Distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in a Climate Change Scenario of Regional Rivalry

Abstract

Arboviral mosquito vectors are key targets for the surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases worldwide. In recent years, changes to the global distributions of these species have been a major research focus, aimed at predicting outbreaks of arboviral diseases. In this study, we analyzed a global scenario of climate change under regional rivalry to predict changes to these species’ distributions over the next century. Using occurrence data from VectorMap and environmental variables (temperature and precipitation) from WorldClim v. 2.1, we first built fundamental niche models for both species with the boosted regression tree modelling approach. A scenario of climate change on their fundamental niche was then analyzed. The shared socioeconomic pathway scenario 3 (regional rivalry) and the global climate model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model v. 4.1 (GFDL-ESM4.1; gfdl.noaa.gov) were utilized for all analyses, in the following time periods: 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Outcomes from these analyses showed that future climate change will affect Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus distributions in different ways across the globe. The Northern Hemisphere will have extended Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus distributions in future climate change scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere will have the opposite outcomes. Europe will become more suitable for both species and their related vector-borne diseases. Loss of suitability in the Brazilian Amazon region further indicated that this tropical rainforest biome will have lower levels of precipitation to support these species in the future. Our models provide possible future scenarios to help identify locations for resource allocation and surveillance efforts before a significant threat to human health emerges.